New York Faces Looming Power Shortfall

Experts are warning that New York’s grid could face serious shortfalls in the next few years.

They're doubling down on electrification—homes, cars, chip plants—all while retiring more power than they replace. Since 2019, overall generation capacity has declined. But solar softened the drop. In October 2024, New York reached 6 GW of distributed solar, up from 3GW just five years earlier, and is now approaching 10 GW. That rapid deployment likely prevented a much deeper shortfall.

Nearly 25% of the current generation is over 50 years old, and some are even 70+. Residential electricity now costs an estimated $0.25 per kWh, 48% higher than the U.S. average. And new projects aren’t being built fast enough to fill the gap.

Governor Hochul just announced a new nuclear plant. It’s the right call. We need a firm, zero-emission baseload. But we also need to be honest—Vogtle, the last nuclear project in the U.S., took 15 years to complete, ran 7 years late, and cost $35 billion—more than double the original $14 billion estimate.

Solar has been the most deployable tool in our kit. It bought us time—time we wouldn’t have had if we relied only on long-lead projects like new transmission or nuclear builds. But time isn’t a solution. It’s a window. And that window is closing as time keeps moving.

Another arrow in our quiver is to make sure what is online is running the best it can as possible. Now’s the moment to repower existing solar, scale storage, modernize the grid, and move every viable solution forward in parallel.

What will it take to implement these solutions quickly enough to make a difference?

@Empire Center for Public Policy

https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/albanys-looming-energy-shock/